Oil and gas benchmarks
Two oil benchmarks dominate: Brent crude, priced from North Sea production, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma. For natural gas, the U.S. Henry Hub price and Europe's Dutch TTF hub are the main references. When we report a move, we say which benchmark and which contract month, because the details change the meaning.
Supply decisions from the OPEC+ group, which combines members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with partners such as Russia, are scheduled news. We report announced production targets as fact and treat compliance with those targets as a separate, later question.
Official outlooks
Three monthly reports frame the energy year: the International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report, OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report and the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook. They often disagree on demand growth. We present their estimates side by side rather than choosing one.
Manufacturing surveys
Purchasing managers' indexes are among the earliest signals of industrial activity. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States and S&P Global's PMIs for the eurozone, UK, China and others are built from surveys of purchasing executives. A reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with the prior month; below 50 indicates contraction.
The sub-indexes are often more useful than the headline: new orders hint at future production, supplier delivery times reveal congestion, and input prices show cost pressure before it reaches official inflation data.
Supply lines and freight
Much of world trade moves by sea, and a few narrow routes carry an outsized share. The Suez Canal links Europe and Asia; the Panama Canal links the Atlantic and Pacific and depends on freshwater levels in Gatun Lake; the Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of seaborne oil. Disruption at any of them adds distance, insurance cost and delay.
For a factory, that means longer lead times and higher landed cost for components. For a retailer, it means stock arriving late for a season. We track container rate indexes and port congestion reports and translate them into days and costs where the data allows.
A reminder on lag. A spike in spot freight rates can take weeks or months to reach contract rates, and longer to reach shelf prices. We note the likely timing when we analyse a move.
Power and the energy transition
Electricity prices, grid connection queues and investment in renewables and storage now feature in industrial planning. Policy such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism affects where companies build and how they price exports. We report what the rules say and when they apply, and label commentary on their effects as analysis.
